Econometrics: One cure for political bla-bla-bla.

 

It ain't what you don't know that hurts you, 
its what you know that just ain't so.

Will Rogers 1879-1935

 

Econometrics is the use of statistics, especially multiple regression or canonical analysis to discover relationships [or the lack thereof] between/among economic data sets.  When control of the legislature and/or executive is included as a data set, this is called Political Econometrics.  

While correlation in no way "proves" causality, the lack of significant correlation between variables means any argument about these is simply "debating the gender of angels."  

Econometrics & Political Econometrics  websites

http://www.feweb.vu.nl/econometriclinks/ Econometrics Journal Online 

Major link site

http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~morillo/links.html  
   
   
   

Econometrics texts

Basic Econometrics, 4/e

 

Gujarati's Basic Econometrics provides an elementary but comprehensive introduction to econometrics without resorting to matrix algebra, calculus, or statistics beyond the elementary level. Because of the way the book is organized, it may be used at a variety of levels of rigor. A CD of data sets is provided with the text. 114$US at amazon.com I have both books -- Basic is slightly simpler than Essentials
Essentials of Econometrics This text, also by Gujarati,  provides a simple and straightforward introduction to econometrics for the beginner. The author's intent is to provide the student with a "user friendly," non-intimidating introduction to econometric theory and techniques. The book motivates students to understand econometric techniques through extensive examples, careful explanations, and a wide variety of problem material. The audience is undergraduate economics, agricultural economics, and business administration majors, MBA students and others in the social and behavioral sciences where econometric techniques, especially the techniques of linear regression analysis, are used. 97$US at amazon.com

Schaum's Outline of Statistics and Econometrics, 2nd Edition
The updated and expanded second edition of the internationally bestselling guide to principles and practices for undergraduate business and economics students taking mandatory economics statistics courses. - Features four new sections—on nonparametric tests, the Logit Model, the Probit Model, and causality tests—complete with new models and tests used in financial econometrics, and a new chapter on time series econometrics -  Includes numerous examples, completely worked problems, supplementary problems, and two full-length self-examinations. 19$US at amazon.com
   
   

 

Statistics Programs

http://www.spss.com/ SPSS [Statistical Program for Social Sciences] Industrial strength (and industrial price) statistics program.  Many optional add-ins -- Professionals tool.
http://www.systat.com/ SysStat used in many college courses other than social sciences
http://www.winstat.com/ WinStat -- Add-in for Microsoft Excel.  Multiple but not canonical regression.  Good graphics and easy to use.  Easy calculation of residuals and their distribution.  This is the program I use.
EasyReg "Easy Regression" Freeware Econometrics program  
Link Page Long list of free and share software

The rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday
-but never jam today.

Lewis Carroll [Charles Lutwidge Dodgson] (1832-98), English writer, mathematician. 
The White Queen, in Through the Looking-Glass, ch. 5 (1872).

Unka' George's econometric data files in xls format. A complete spreadsheet program that will open these files can be downloaded for free at http://www.openoffice.org/ 

  PolData.xls U.S political control data set of the United States Federal Government for 1945 forward.  My assumption is that with WW2, the United States changed fundamentally.  Data back to 1939 is included as part of the leading series. Base, logit and probit transforms for each factor are included

Important Notes:

(1) The time shifted series (1 year leading, 2 year leading, etc.) in U.S. Federal political control data set are highly co-linear for any single category such as presidency, house or senate.  Use only one of each at a time in the regression equations.

(2) "Practical significance" of a factor is critical.  Either the change in the dependent value is tiny or the amount of change required in the independent variable is excessive, for example requiring a shift in house control equivalent to that of the first FDR election to produce a 0.1% change in the unemployment rate.

  CPIa1.xls Consumer price index from the BLS.  1913 to present.  by year
  Mid-year average price for gold in CY dollars per troy ounce.
  Mid-year average price for sweet crude oil CY$/bbl
  U. S. minimum wage CY and CPI-U inflation adj. $/hr.
   
   
 comwage.xls Table showing U.S. per capita income 1967-2003 in commodities such as silver, rice, corn and beans XLS format with charts

vehiclespercap.xls

XLS file of vehicle ownership, population and gdp by state with regression of per capita vehicle ownership on per capita gdp.
     gas prices.xls XLS file of average monthly gasoline prices in the US Jan 2000 through Aug 2005, in CY$ and Aug 2006 CPI-U$, months to elections, months (Jan=1..Dec=12), and months from Jan 2000.   With multiple regression macros [WinStat] and charts.  Examines if gasoline prices are manipulated before elections. My conclusion was that this is not the case, and the apparent price drop is regular/expected seasonal effect.
 minwage&unemp.xls

 

XLS file of base and seasonally adjusted unemployment for the United States in percent, current and CPI-U minimum wage rates, and Presidential party [dummy coded Rep=1, Dem=0)  Shows no correlation between minimum wage and unemployment. covers Jan 1954 through Sept 2006. Includes probit transforms of the unemployment data.

  minwage-inf.xls

Added 28 April 2010 -- A XLS file of inflation data as un adjusted CPI-U, delta from previous month, percent change from previous month.  Minimum wage data in CY$ and cpi-u March 2010 CV$ , offset 0, 1, 3, and 6 months to detect any lagging effects. Data by month for Dec 1949-Mar 2010.  Not all possible combinations were analyzed,  but the month number [to include the "march of time" effect] had at least as large a correlation with "inflation" as either CY$ or CV$ minimum wage.  Any correlations are miniscule, and it can be concluded that minimum wage increases, within the data set limits has no effect on the inflation rate/

gini1.pdf

 A pdf file showing the US GINI index from 1997-1994 with extrapolation to 2020 using 2nd degree LSBF trendline.  Some data points are identified with countries with equal GINIs as of 1994.  XLS file with data points and chart available on email request.  Added 15 Oct 08 

byprez.xls

An xls file showing the party of the president and the presence of an US economic recession by month for Jan 1950 - Dec 2008.  Small positive correlation between a Republican US president and the presence of a recession [r^2 = 0.05] Includes WinStat graphic and summary statistics. 

earnings-08.xls

An xls file containing income U.S. distribution for 2008 w/ charts/graphs.  This data includes all legal Americans between the ages of 25 and 65 including those with no income because of unemployment or homemaker status.  Actual median when zero income individuals are included actual median income is about 20k$ per year. Base data ownloaded from Census Bureau. added 12Aug10

miscellaneous drop box files

All Software supplied as freeware with no warranty for fitness of use, 
not even as a bad example.
 

anodize0001.pdf

pdf scan of anodizing pages from "Finishes for Aluminum" Oct 15, 1946
from Lindsay reprint see http://www.lindsaybks.com 

click to download
MDI.exe
419 Kb

 *BETA TEST VERSION* A windows program based on the WHO Major Depression Inventory instrument.  a review of the literature has indicated depression is a major symptom of "learned helplessness," and this survey attempts to measure the degree of depression an individual may have.  Set up to run at a local community college to evaluate student depression and stress levels. Should run under most newer versions of windows.  Program will leave a data file in the directory where you install/run the program in excel csv format as MDI.csv.  Because the response data is ordinal rather than interval or continuous, the data file is set up for binary or dummy coded variables for regression analysis.  Data dictionary and source code available on request. New 03 Oct 11

click to download
LHI.exe
419 kB

*BETA TEST VERSION* A windows based Learned Helplessness Inventory or learned dependency survey.  A review of the literature indicates that in communities with high levels of "learned helplessness" or "learned dependency" [economic] development (or change of any kind) is very difficult, and LH/LD must be corrected before any significant progress can be made. This should run under most newer versions of Windows.  Program will leave an Excel csv data file in the directory in which you install/run it as LHI.csv. Because the response data is ordinal rather than interval or continuous, the file is set up for binary or dummy coded variables for regression analysis.  Data dictionary and source code available on request. New 04Oct 11

polygon7.zip

 

PowerBasic program to generate polygons using live tooling in a cnc lathe with C axis control [not indexing].  Includes PB source, exe files for Windows and sample output file.  Should run on all versions of MS windows.  Feel free to email me with suggestions, observations, etc. or you need different output format. version 6.0 changes: 'N' prefix added to line numbers, H (incremental) changed to C (absolute) spindle positioning, 'X' changed from radial to diametrical.  X calculations now though to be correct v7 also includes prn file with cross reference and line numbers.

   

ptsim.zip

Supplied as freeware with no warranty for fitness of use, 
not even as a bad example.

Companion program to poly07.  Reads the polygon.txt file and graphically simulates the machining.  Should run on any version of windows.  Note that the part stand still and the tool moves around the part. contains bppt01.bas source file, bppt01.exe executable, bppt01.prn pretty print file with cross reference and highlighted control loops, bppt01.log compiler log, and polygon.txt sample file.  Placed in the public domain 07Jan07

Zip file now contains bppt01a.

   

splitter.zip

click to download

Supplied as freeware with no warranty for fitness of use, 
not even as a bad example.

A software solution to the problem of a large file and small controller memory w/o drip feed capability.  Divides any G-code CNC file into smaller user specified size files (minimum 5k), and adds header.nc and footer .nc to preserve modal settings, etc.  Generated programs are seg00001.nc through seg99999.nc in the same directory as split02.exe.  you can specify drive and directory of the long input file and the program will accept long file names as well as the DOS 8.3 format.

Splitter.zip contains the following files:

split04.bas -  the PowerBasic CC source file
split04.exe -  the executable program that will run in Windows  no DOS box needed
blade.nc        -  a long 341k profiling program for test
footer.nc    -  a sample footer file from test.nc 
header.nc   -  a sample header file from test.nc

Note header.nc and footer.nc must be user generated from the long program they wish to split.  Let me know if you find this to be useful and any suggestions for improvements or extensions.

Update 13 Apr 07 from split02 to split03 is that the return of the tool to the last position is under rapid [G0] except for last 0.10 unit of Z travel. G1 modal is restored.

Update 14 Apr 07 from split03 to split 04 is that entire code line is parsed and LAST XYZ values are used, when multiple moves per line.  Rapid approach now to within 0.5 units in Z on following segment, then G1 model.

 

   

click to download

hob03c.zip

Supplied as freeware with no warranty for fitness of use, 
not even as a bad example.

alpha? test level v0.3c of a program generator to allow you to use a CNC lathe with indexing spindle as a light duty low volume gear hobber/shaper. One big advantage is that it will generate the correct involute profile using only a rack profile [straight sided] single point tool that can even be hand ground for emergency use, but certainly on any surface grinder.  Only the side angles and the flat at the tip are critical.  It is assumed that a knee type tool holder will hold the tool above the part at a distance of 1/2 the pitch diameter to the Z axis and the tool is at right angles to the Z axis. (may be a set-up problem on slant bed machines)

In use the tool is positioned (and part zero is) slightly behind  the rear edge of the gear blank and in line with the front face.  Z axis travel is used as the ram of a shaper, and the tool is fed to the front of the lathe in synchronization with the blank rotation to generate the involute profile.

Based on user input information such as pitch diameter, number of teeth, spindle resolution, desired X step increment, gear face thickness, etc. three programs are generated:

O02.cnc which cuts two opposing spaces for checking over pins for adjustment.

O099.cnc which cuts all the spaces.

O0314.cnc which strokes the Z axis in and out, rotates the spindle and increments X.

O0314 is a sub program called by both O02 and O099.

You should be able to cut involute splines on a shaft although a relieving grove at the end of the stroke will be required.

These programs have not been test run and this program generator is provided only for your comments and suggestions., which I hope to receive quite a few of. Click on the email below to contact me.

Thanks to all the regulars on AMC and RCM for their observations, suggestions, etc. that got me this far.

Please let me know if you find this of interest and/or help.

  

CharacterCounter

click to download exe file

Supplied as freeware with no warranty for fitness of use, 
not even as a bad example.

A diagnostic tool to determine if your CNC program file contains lower case letters (such as a lower case ell in place of a one), high-bit (such as a "phantom" space) or non-printing [control] characters.  This can cause hard to identify /correct problems.  Generates a complete character count from ASCII-0 through ASCII-255 and identifies the context as in complete program, in blocks or in comments.  Runs under most any version of windows, and does *NOT* require a DOS box or environment.  

Source will be supplied on request if you wish to port to Linux or Mac.  Written in PowerBasic Console Compiler  4.0.  Very fast with operationally unlimited file size.  Generates two output files, FN.rpt which is a standard text file you can print or paste, and FN.csv which is a comma delimited file that you can open in most any spreadsheet program for additional analysis.

Please let me know if you find this of interest and/or help, or if you have any suggestions.  Click on GmcD above counter at bottom of page to send me an email.

Thanks to all the regulars on AMC and RCM for their observations, suggestions, etc.

Added Sunday 19 Aug 2007 as CNTCHR03.EXE, and placed in the public domain by the author.

Updated to CNTCHR3A.EXE on 21 Aug 07.  Error checking/reporting (file creation/disk full) improved, and a screen notifying operator of completion and times required added.   

cribb.zip

 

A zipped file containing:

 Smid's cribbage board from his CNC Programming Handbook 2nd edition CD in PDF format as cribb29.pdf   Note this may be copyrighted. Sized for 7 X 9 inch board.  Suggested material maple, but aluminum should be fine.

My Autocad/InteliCAD drawing of above as cribb29.dwg in Autocad/InteliCAD v2004 format that includes hole placement. You will need cribb29.pdf for usual dimensions.  Note that there are a large number of layers with CNC information not normally dimensioned such as start/end and arc centers.  I can see a an aluminum blank machined and polished except for the "29" outline and graduations, anodized, and then the "29" outline and graduations engraved.

Another 2 peg straight cribbage board layout is included in dxf format.

YOU WILL HAVE TO EXTRACT THE FILES USING WINZIP, PKUNZIP OR SIMILAR   

 

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last updated 2014/05/27
by GmcD click to send email
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